With all the chaos, is WW3 about to erupt?
This is a position paper from a series of private papers in my own collection, re: critical hot spots that could cause WW3.
In my opinion there are three places that if found to be in active combat at the same time, WW3 by definition could be activated.
These three are, the Russia/Europe territory, the Middle East, and the South China Sea.
I’m writing this article because two of the three are on fire, presently.
1. The first hot spot is the Russia/Ukraine War. So far this does not involve Europe directly, but Europe is tasked with keeping Ukraine armed and supported. If Ukraine falls, Europe is next door and will have to face down Russia.
Not since WW2 has there been such a large loss of life in combat. Russia’s largest loss of life and those wounded in WW2 was the Battle of Stalingrad. There were between 1 million and 1.2 million casualties with 250k killed. That was the largest number of casualties in a single battle during WW2. Today, at the hands of the Ukrainians, total Russian casualties number close to 950k with 250k killed. This number is alarmingly close to the Stalingrad number. How can Russia let this happen to its youth? Twice in a generation. Putin has lost his mind. What is he thinking? He has said at various times that giving up Ukraine would be like America giving up Texas. “It’s not going to happen,” Putin says.
This is WW3 in terms of Ukraine today. The potential for much higher casualties mount as Putin shows no signs of reducing the war. Plus, Europe is supplying Ukraine with more weapons. Germany has pledged 5% of its GDP to the development of military weapons. That’s up over its previous pledge of 2%. This is insanity. We are looking at the bloodiest battle in history if things go on. The implication is stark and dangerous. Add to it that, America has started sending new weapons to Ukraine that will enhance both defensive and offensive capabilities.
2. Now for the Middle East. Israel witnessed the brutal slaughter of 1,200 Israelis and their friends in a nightmare raid by Hamas. Israel turned around and slaughtered Hamas and citizens of the Gaza Strip. Famine has set in. At least 40k Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip have been killed. Hell has descended upon Gaza. The irony is too strong to stomach. Jews who were visited with torture and death during the Holocaust, now, as the military of Israel, has visited vengeance upon Gaza.
And this is not the end of it. Israel now has a protective dome over it. With impunity, it has now destroyed Hezbollah, an enemy on its northern border, which started bombing Israel during its war with Hamas. Some Hezbollah members were killed by Israel's surreal modern technology. Members of Hezbollah were killed as they went about their private lives. As they would innocently look down at their iPhone, they were sent by Israelis to blow up once the phones were opened. Evil genius at work.
Israel finished the job by turning its attention on the mastermind of these various attacks on it - Iran. Iran got off fairly well. All Israel did was destroy their nuclear capability, while assassinating one by one leading scientists of their nuclear program. Also, assassinations were carried out on high ranking military officers.
Israel acted one last time. It destroyed the Houthis of Yemen, who had been disrupting world shipping lanes by firing rockets at cargo ships heading to the Suez Canal through the Red Sea. They also had been shelling Israel at the command of Iran. As of this writing the Houthis are still firing upon ships headed through the Red Sea.
Israel is now in control of the Middle East. But what does it leave behind? The stench of death and famine and suffering is hanging over the land. Israel broke everything in sight, now they must try to fix it before enemies once again arm themselves with goodness only knows what.
WW3 has started hitting two out of three critical areas. Is the third area about to explode?
3. Is the South China Sea about to witness a slaughter greater than the other two put together? In other words, is China ready to invade Taiwan? Is China ready to challenge America for supremacy of the deep blue Pacific Ocean?
China’s president Xi Jinping tells his military to be ready to go to war by 2027. If that’s right, there will be hell to pay. Even though China has more warships than America, it remains to be seen if those commanding the ships are ready for the battle tested American Navy.
As of yet, China has not been in any major war except for boarder skirmishes with India, Vietnam, and Korea in the modern age; and for fighting Chiang Kai-shek nationals who escaped to Formosa in 1949, which is now the modern day democracy of Taiwan. American lethality at sea is the most potent force of any naval capability in world history. My sense of China is that they will take their time before they try to confront America. If so, they will be acting wisely, if not, they look at being seriously crippled.
Conclusion
There are three critical areas in the world that will need to be covered by western powers to avert the possibility of WW3.
They are, the Russian/European territory, the Middle East, and the South China Sea.
Presently, the Russian/Ukraine War is a hot war, which has convinced Europe to up its defense spending and support of Ukraine. Russia’s aggressiveness has put America on active participation once again.
The Middle East is a tragic scene with Israel defeating every foe in the region.with America’s help. No power in the world dominates their region as greatly as does Israel today. Israel has defeated Hamas and Hezbollah. It has degraded the Houthis capabilities, and destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities and seriously disrupted its military command and control.
The South China Sea remains calm for the moment. China would make a serious mistake if it tested America’s will to defend territory it won after WW2.
My best guess is that China and Russia have decided that confrontation with America and Europe is not worth the pain.
As for the Middle East, Israel rules militarily. I do not see that changing.
So far America has fostered a rules based order that has allowed the world to remain peaceful and prosperous. To keep it so, America and her western allies must be dominant on land, sea, air, cyber, and space.
Extraordinary and sobering thoughts!
I agree w you that these are the critical hotspots in the world. There appears to be no incentive to stop any of the conflicts. I would challenge the assumption of the destruction of nuclear power in Iran. Foreign Policy magazine has published several analysis of that assumption. Wow... I'd be one of those that lean toward the idea that finished products can still be created with the material already created. Time will tell. It is crazy, however, that all the countries have increased production of military weaponry... Someone needs to explain why this is good. Also, sacrificing our ability to control so much of the world w our own military and economic might has become the norm with the new administration. I am not sold on an idea that this is good. Thanks for drawing attention to the critical place in history that we are part of. yikes!